Word: exitement
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...past, exit-poll interviewers have oversampled Democrats. Remember 2004? Exit polls projected a John Kerry victory by 3%, while the official count had Bush winning by 2.5%. More recently, exit polls were a mess during this year's primaries, especially in Obama's case, as no one needs to be reminded. Today, this bias may be particularly strong, since Democrats are so gosh-darn exuberant about their candidate - and thus most likely to talk to exit-pollers...
...nuts. Here are the early trends based on Associated Press exit-poll reports...
...After exit polls got a deservedly bad reputation for initially predicting a John Kerry win in 2004, pundits and politicians alike were hesitant to put their faith in the early-voting numbers. So when the exit polls tonight came out showing very positive data for Barack Obama, Democrats weren't, understandably, ready to declare victory...
...Kerry fiasco was just the worst example of a problem that has long been endemic to exit polls. Over the past 20 years, they have slightly favored the Democratic candidate for President in every election. Many observers believe that's because Democrats are more willing to talk to exit pollsters. Exit polls also suffer from an unusually high margin of error due to the difficulty of choosing sample precincts that mirror all of the diverse precincts in the area...
...this year's exit polls turn out to be more accurate than in past years, as they appear to be, it's not by accident. The National Election Pool (a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox and NBC News), working with Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International, made changes this year in an effort to do better...