Word: exits
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Dates: during 1980-1989
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Some 60 years later, Henry Kissinger used "quiet diplomacy" with the Kremlin to increase Jewish emigration. It worked. The number of exit permits rose from 400 in 1968 to nearly 35,000 in 1973. Then Congress once again got into the act. Senator Henry Jackson introduced legislation that in effect made increased Jewish emigration a condition for easier Soviet access to the American market. It backfired. The Kremlin objected to "unacceptable interference in our internal affairs," and emigration dropped off sharply. Later it began to climb again, reaching 51,000 in 1979, but by last year it had plummeted...
Most perplexing of all, the networks reached their divergent conclusions from parallel evidence: raw-vote totals, samples of key precincts and "exit polls" of people who had just voted. All three networks, moreover, found that voters were about evenly split on the President's overall merits, on the efficacy of his economic programs and on the relative importance of unemployment vs. inflation and Government spending. Where the networks parted company, and went awry, was in judging the meaning of those Polls, or perhaps in believing that any consistent meaning was to be found...
...morning about the lineup of local politicians vying to succeed Bradley as the city's mayor. The San Francisco Chronicle's first election extra bannered: BRADLEY WIN PROJECTED. While ABC was predicting Deukmejian's victory, its affiliate stations in Los Angeles and San Francisco were using exit polls of their own to call the race for Bradley instead. In the Senate contest, several affiliates used local exit polls to forecast a victory for Democrat Jerry Brown, who actually lost to Republican Pete Wilson...
...tally results on election night when the networks started calling winners. ABC's analysts won the rush to judgment: they were first with projections in 33 races for Senator or Governor, vs. 17 for NBC and 16 for CBS. A crucial tool for the networks was the "exit poll" of randomly chosen voters at some ten to 75 precincts per state, for a total of up to 36,000 people per network. The technique was pioneered by CBS Pollster Warren Mitofsky in 1967; since the 1980 primaries it has been a favorite statistical gizmo of all three networks. Voters...
...Exit polling has statistical pitfalls as well. Admits a network official: "You are counting how people said they voted, not how they actually did. Moreover, the older a person gets, the more likely he or she is to vote, but the less likely to participate in an exit poll." Adds another network vote counter: "You cannot mathematically calculate the sampling error in an exit poll." Once results are in, in order to use them a pollster must guess the eventual percentages of turnout by age, race, ideology and so on. Warns I.A. Lewis, whose exit poll for the Los Angeles...