Word: exits
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...first round of data from exit polls is out, and there are some demographic trends that may (or may not!) tell us something about what to expect tonight. But remember: Exit polls are compiled from interviews with voters as they leave polling places. They are notoriously unreliable...
...Actual projections are made by "decision desks" at the networks - small groups of journalists and polling experts who use exit data and actual returns to decide when to announce winners. So even though all the networks have access to the same exit poll data, they often don't broadcast projections at the same time. During the primary season, the networks used exit poll data to slice the electorate into various demographic groups - giving viewers proof, for example, of Barack Obama's strength over Hillary Clinton among black voters and Clinton's popularity among older voters. These tidbits help fill airtime...
...past, exit-poll interviewers have oversampled Democrats. Remember 2004? Exit polls projected a John Kerry victory by 3%, while the official count had Bush winning by 2.5%. More recently, exit polls were a mess during this year's primaries, especially in Obama's case, as no one needs to be reminded. Today, this bias may be particularly strong, since Democrats are so gosh-darn exuberant about their candidate - and thus most likely to talk to exit-pollers...
...nuts. Here are the early trends based on Associated Press exit-poll reports...
...After exit polls got a deservedly bad reputation for initially predicting a John Kerry win in 2004, pundits and politicians alike were hesitant to put their faith in the early-voting numbers. So when the exit polls tonight came out showing very positive data for Barack Obama, Democrats weren't, understandably, ready to declare victory...