Word: expectations
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...Even with stop-gap measures, though, recovery will be slow and painful. Governments are under pressure from the IMF or other international lenders to implement tough austerity measures deeply unpopular with voters. After the economic pain, expect another summer of political turmoil ahead...
...lots of this sort of boasting in Obama's speech before Congress. And when Obama mentions these programs, look to see which politicians in the audience stand to applaud. Republicans, who hate policy goals that require federal spending, are likely to sit on their hands, while Democrats rejoice. Finally, expect Obama to talk about the need to continue these sorts of policy initiatives, outlining his priorities for reforming energy, health care and education, as well as the need to simultaneously pare back the long-term deficit...
...stands, nods to bipartisanship, which Americans have long supported, is a clear winner for Obama, so expect to see more of it in the speech. With Democratic control in the House and Senate, Obama has the ability to set the terms of the bipartisan discussion. He wins by talking about the need for bipartisanship - yet he has enough votes in Congress to largely determine when too much bipartisanship would hurt his agenda. "On the one hand, the majority has to be inclusive," he explained on Monday, during an afternoon discussion with lawmakers. "On the other hand, the minority...
...While much of this ambiguity is likely to remain after Tuesday's speech, Obama will be obligated to explain how he views the ongoing international violence and shifting threats. Expect the President to combine a continued determination for victory against terrorist threats with a cautious explanation of the difficult challenges ahead. President Bush did himself great political harm by repeatedly offering rosy projections about the war in Iraq that later proved to be unfounded. Obama, who inherited Bush's military engagements, is not likely to repeat that mistake...
...Other supporters of strong regulation aren't worried about the Sunstein nomination. They expect OIRA under Sunstein to preserve cost-benefit analysis as a tool, but not to use it in such a way as to always reach the conclusion that regulation is too costly to impose. "It's true that cost-benefit analysis has been used in a very anti-regulatory way," says Michael A. Livermore, co-author, with Richard L. Revesz, of Retaking Rationality: How Cost-Benefit Analysis Can Better Protect the Enviroment and Our Health. "But cost-benefit analysis can be fixed to be more...