Word: expected
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Dates: during 1990-1999
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Reaser does expect a slowdown in 1999, to a growth rate between 2% and 2.5%--probably closer to the higher figure. But she sees only a 20% chance of recession, vs. the fifty-fifty odds some economists were quoting as recently as September. She expects a leveling off in housing and a decline in nonresidential construction, as well as "a widening of the trade gap," but thinks they will be largely offset by further gains in consumer spending, business investment in information technology and "some increase in government spending." Profits of companies whose stocks are included in the Standard & Poor...
...forecasting and consulting firm, is close to Reaser on overall numbers; he predicts 1999 GDP growth of 2% to 2 1/4%. But his tone is considerably less cheery. Many economists, he notes, would consider a 2.5% increase "a trend rate of growth"--that is, roughly what the U.S. could expect to average over a long period. Sinai, however, belongs to a "new economy" school that believes rising productivity makes a 3% annual average possible. Thus he views next year's likely increase to be significantly below potential--perhaps meriting the term growth recession...
...protectionist surge could be disastrous in the long run for the U.S. as well as the world economy, since they are now so intertwined. But that is, at worst, a long-run threat. Board members expect the economic expansion to keep rolling, even though more slowly, not only through 1999 but also on into the following year. Forecasts that far ahead, of course, are always risky, the more so given the still dicey international situation. But it is worth noting that if the expansion lasts even through the first two months of 2000, it will break the 1961-69 record...
...personal liberties:As citizens of a republic where rights are protected by written constitutions, we enjoy such privileges as freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, freedom of association and a right to privacy. At Home, however, no protection of rights exists. The visitor at Home should understand and expect that personal liberties may be curtailed. Freedom to assemble with one's friends, for example, or freedom to express one's opinions about certain divisive issues-particularly in a public forum, including a holiday meal-may be suspended without notice. In most cases, resistance is futile. Visitors should also be prepared...
...were almost relieved by the bombing of Iraq, since it delayed an impeachment vote and has cast President Clinton in a strong leadership stance. Oil stocks that spiked sharply at first soon settled back toward normal levels: After all, world markets are overflowing with oil. "I don't even expect much more movement in the stocks you historically see getting the most attention in these situations, like energy companies or defense-related businesses," says Gail Dudack, Warburg Dillon Reed's chief investment strategist...