Word: exportability
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...only way for European countries to insulate themselves against that peril, TIME's economists agreed, is to boost domestic demand and become less reliant on exports. The onus will be on West Germany, Europe's most powerful economy, to take the initiative. Last year the Germans resisted pressure to cut interest rates and lift demand by promising that strong growth was already in the pipeline. Further stimulus, German officials argued, would raise the risk of an overheated economy and renewed inflation. But West Germany's 2.75% growth rate in 1986 fell short of expectations as the high-flying mark...
...certain that European governments can quickly generate a sharp rise in domestic consumption merely by pouring more money into their economies. A portion of industrial capacity must be redirected from manufacturing products for export to satisfying local demands, and that takes time. Warned Board Member Guido Carli, former governor of the Bank of Italy: "I have doubts that in the short term it is possible to restructure the economies of countries like Germany and Italy, which for so many years have been export oriented...
FRANCE. The government has forecast growth of 2.8% this year, but Jean-Marie Chevalier, professor of economics at the University of Paris Nord, contends that it will be more like 2%. He cites soft consumer demand at home and still softer exports as causes for concern. Traditionally, some 30% of French exports go to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other developing nations where lower oil revenues and large debt loads have sharply curtailed purchasing power. As a result, France's export earnings are bound to suffer. Sluggish growth may nudge up unemployment from 10.6% to 11% this year...
...boost their 2.75% growth rate. Herbert Giersch, director of the Institute of World Economics at the University of Kiel, suggested that Bonn should bring forward tax cuts now planned for January 1988. Such stimulus is needed, he said, because a rising mark could play havoc with West Germany's export industries. Giersch predicted that the country would be lucky to achieve a 2.5% growth rate...
...emphasize the security of manufacturing processes. But Pentagon officials have had a sharp rejoinder to the panel's conclusions. Says Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Stephen Bryen: "In computer technology alone, the Soviets had narrowed the gap on us to a year and a half. Due to our export restrictions, that gap is back up to seven or eight years." With an eye on the horrendous U.S. trade deficit, however, Commerce Department officials are openly sympathetic to the study's criticism. Says Paul Freedenberg, an assistant Commerce Secretary: "We can cut the list. We can be more responsive." The debate...