Word: exporters
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...century," the region continues to suffer from a lack of internal support from its 3.5 billion consumers. The private-consumption share of developing Asia's overall GDP fell to a record low of 47% in 2008 - down from 55% as recently as 2001. In other words, Asia remains an export machine. Developing Asia's export share rose from 36% of pan-regional GDP during the financial crisis of 1997-98 to a record 47% in 2007. And recent research by the International Monetary Fund shows that Asian exports continue to be underpinned by demand from consumers in the industrial world...
...Therein lies a critical challenge for Asia. Unless it comes up with a new source of demand to support its export-led growth model, Asia will face stiff and enduring headwinds. Nowhere is this more evident than in China, where the mood has turned particularly upbeat. While I no longer doubt that China's performance will be better than expected in 2009, there is good reason to be wary of extrapolation. China's incipient rebound relies on a timeworn stimulus formula: upping the ante on infrastructure spending to support growth in anticipation of a return of global demand for Chinese...
...export-led China doesn't get a kick from the American consumer, a relapse for China-dependent Asia is a distinct possibility next year. Don't be fooled by catchphrases such as "green shoots" and the "Asia century." In the aftermath of the modern world's worst financial crisis and recession, an Asian-led global healing remains a real stretch...
...locations. Indeed the current boost is best explained by Chinese steel production demand and a shortage of the Capesize vessels to haul the iron ore. Penn notes that it is not yet clear whether the core manufacturing that is turning again in China is linked to coming export demand or domestic infrastructure investment. "There are always quirks in the pricing," he notes. "And at the moment it seems a very China-centric market." (Read "Plunge in Trade Is a Boon for Singapore Ship Suppliers...
That's to say, before you run out to start an import-export business, take a look at some other numbers in the shipping world that are far less robust. Shipping by container, typically finished goods, remains troublingly cheap, a sign that consumer products are still not flowing between continents. The price for a 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU) container on an East Asia-to-Europe voyage is reportedly currently maxing out at a paltry $500. Though the pace of the drop in rates has slowed, there are signs that charter prices have still not bottomed out, having dipped below...