Word: exports
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...town over from Nishi-Kawaguchi, mosque chairman Raees Siddiqui, a 53-year-old Pakistani, is happy to chat about a possible backlash against Muslims due to the arrests, but he only has a few minutes: the 30-year resident of Japan, who runs a million-dollar used-car export business, says he has to be at the police station soon. No, he's not wanted for anything, or even questioning, he replies, simultaneously offended and amused at the suggestion. He requested the meeting with the police, he says, because he's concerned that the arrested men have already been convicted...
...point is not to ignore threats, but rather to ignore fear, especially when fear itself becomes a threat to peace. Real strength also means finishing what you start—a call going unanswered in the deteriorating nation of Afghanistan. Our greatest success in Afghanistan is that its chief export is once again drugs instead of terrorism. The President, Hamid Karzai, is effectively the mayor of Kabul, beyond whose borders power lies in the hands of warlords and, increasingly, the Taliban. (Did you know the Taliban still exists?) The world knows that one of the best ways to evaluate strength...
...asia's 1997 economic crisis painfully demonstrated, the region's export-centric growth model is not without pitfalls. While critical lessons have been learned from that wrenching period, Asia has lingering vulnerabilities. Two soft spots are likely to prove especially vexing: the region's dependence upon mainland China and the policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve. A looming slowdown in China's economy will undermine Asia's newest source of external demand, whereas the pending normalization of U.S. interest rates could convince American consumers, the region's oldest and most reliable source of external demand, to cut back on spending...
...soft landing will be felt around the region. The mainland's 40% import surge in 2003 was the spark that ignited Asia's nascent cyclical rebound. When China slows down?as it likely will within months?a chill will settle over Japan, Asia's newest recovery story. Surging exports to China accounted for 32% of total Japanese-export growth in 2003. Japanese capital spending is also being driven in a significant way by capacity expansion in those industries trading with China. With annual private-consumption growth remaining anemic at about 1.5%, Japan has very little cushion against a falloff...
...Other Asian countries are exposed, too. In South Korea, fully 36% of export growth in 2003 is traceable to sales into China. Given the postbubble travails of Korean consumers, a deterioration in a key source of external growth could have a major impact domestically. Dramatic effects can also be expected in Taiwan and Hong Kong?economies that have become appendages of the mainland's production platform. A slowdown in China puts all that at risk. Meanwhile, in America, the drumbeat grows louder for a shift in U.S. monetary policy, presaging higher borrowing costs. With the American economy surging...