Word: exports
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...tiny, remote New Zealand (pop. 4.3 million), finding ways to sell more goods overseas is a constant concern. "Exports have basically flatlined for the past 25 years as a share of the economy," says David Skilling, head of think tank The New Zealand Institute. China and New Zealand are both members of the World Trade Organization, but bilateral trade deals are seen as a way to further open export markets. New Zealand would like to follow Australia's lead and sign one with the U.S., but a deal with China is just as pressing. Lopsided tariff barriers - China...
...This overabundance of production capacity means China's export machine is like a race car with no brakes. As long as the road remains smooth and straight, the car roars ahead. But throw in some potholes and a tight turn, and the wheels come off. Factories have been able to increase output in recent years because the global economy has been on a tear. The 2004-07 period saw the second strongest bout of global growth on record - which translated into strong demand for cheap Chinese-made products. But this era may be ending. Most economists are predicting a significant...
...Hong Kong, says that factory owners in southern China believe the new law will drive labor costs another 10-25% higher. Among other provisions, the new law entitles laid-off workers to one month of severance pay for every year of employment. "In a case where an export market is going down, if you want to reduce your number of workers, then you face a lot of problems," says Stanley Lau, vice chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries. To lay people off, "you need to pay a huge amount in compensation." Nor is there any relief from surging...
...course, worst-case scenarios don't always come true. Anderson, the UBS economist, isn't overly pessimistic. But he sees China's export growth rate falling from about 25% a year to single-digits by mid-2008. "2008 will likely be the year manufacturers [are] finally forced to take a general hit on profitability," he says. A soft landing for factories might even be beneficial for the country in the long term, because it would weed out inefficient operators and boost China's productivity. A period of "creative destruction" is an inevitable part of any business cycle. China's economic...
...bombing Iran, but he doesn't claim the Iranians will thank us for it. Barack Obama wants to restore America's good name, but not with the 82nd Airborne. For the most part, militarists and moralists now occupy separate camps. In the coming years, America will try to export its values and may well use military force. But it won't try to do both at the same time...