Word: fatah
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...rocks and assault rifles, it's an open question whether he'll muster the necessary political authority. Never mind the Islamists who've always opposed the peace process and declared Thursday that they're not bound by any cease-fire; even the rank and file of Arafat's own Fatah organization now appears to favor struggle over negotiations as a means of dealing with the Israelis. The Jerusalem bombing highlights the fact that in order to keep his agreement, Arafat will need his security forces to once again turn their guns on fellow Palestinians in order to protect Israelis...
...while the leaders around Arafat, in between saber-rattling, insist that peace talks can be resumed if the Israelis withdraw their forces to their pre-September 27 deployments, those leading from the street, such as Fatah activist Marwan Barghouti, insist they'll fight on until Israel has fully withdrawn from the West Bank and Gaza. Implicit in the current violence, therefore, is a power struggle within Palestinian ranks. And with Arafat aging and ailing and his immediate aides unable to command the loyalty of the streets, there's little cause for optimism that the Oslo Accord will be revived...
...orchestrate the six-year intifadeh from exile in Jordan, built himself a nice power base in the West Bank Tanzim until Arafat slapped his face a year ago for daring to challenge the Palestinian Authority. Then Arafat elevated another activist, Hussein Sheikh, to take over Barghouti's work among Fatah. And then Arafat changed tack again, publicly kissing Barghouti on the forehead late this summer. Both men claim to lead the Tanzim, both see their prominence in the violence as the path to power. Add to them the radicals of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, bent on wiping out Israel...
That's when Arafat decided to marshal his Tanzim forces--maybe 2,000 street enforcers armed with automatic weapons and more or less loyal to his Fatah wing of the hydra-headed Palestinian cause--to prepare for an appropriate opportunity. Arafat, the Tanzim bosses say, explicitly warned them that clashes would come because Israel "wanted" to spark violence. It is tough to draw a solid line between Arafat's meetings and last week's violence. The Tanzim, to be sure, has its own agenda...
...militant Islamists of Hamas to fight on despite Arafat's agreement obviously comes as no surprise, but of far deeper concern to the Palestinian leader is the fact that much of the grassroots leadership of his own Fatah organization has been equally, and as openly, scornful of the cease-fire. Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti, who has played a central role in organizing the current intifada, publicly dismissed the Sharm el-Sheik agreement Tuesday, and vowed to continue to fight to end the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. Arafat may have to look long and hard to find...