Word: fatah
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Needless to say, there is not much optimism in the region over prospects for peace. But the urgency of resolving the conflict may be greater than ever, as the security situation is likely to see a perilous decline in the coming months. Many members of Abbas' Fatah movement, seeing themselves steadily eclipsed by Hamas, are urging a break from their President's strategy of negotiating with the Israelis and a return to confronting the Israeli occupation in the West Bank. (See pictures of Gaza digging...
...Fatah leaders see the Israeli election as confirming what they already knew: there's nothing to be gained by continuing the charade of U.S.-sponsored talks about talks with the Israelis. Palestinians could not get what they needed from Olmert, and they know that his successors will take even more of a hard line. From the Palestinian perspective, the past eight years of waiting for negotiations with Israel have left Abbas empty-handed, while the latest Gaza conflict has put Hamas in a stronger position than ever in the court of Palestinian public opinion. Despite the violence by Hamas gunmen...
...independent Palestinian polling organization found last week that for the first time, Hamas has greater political support than Fatah across the West Bank and Gaza and would win any election that were held right now. Aides to Abbas are reportedly concerned that an Israel-Hamas deal to secure the release of the captive Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in Gaza could involve releasing the Hamas parliamentarians in Israeli detention. The Palestinian legislature is unable to meet because Israel holds those lawmakers. If it were able to convene, Hamas would remain the majority party...
...reconstituting a unity government with him. Reports from Cairo, where Egypt is brokering truce arrangements, suggest that Hamas has accepted the idea that forces loyal to Abbas be placed in control of the border crossings into Gaza to allow the crossings to be reopened. And much of Fatah's rank and file is pressing for a unity government - an option that had been forcefully opposed by the Bush Administration. Fatah is due to elect new leadership next month. While Abbas may survive in a titular leadership position, control of the organization is likely to pass to a younger, more militant...
...course, the Israelis, whether led by the Likud Party's Benjamin Netanyahu or Kadima's Tzipi Livni, will flatly refuse to talk to a Palestinian government that includes Hamas. But that may not deter Fatah, since the movement has gained little by talking to Israeli governments that are plainly unwilling to meet the Palestinians' bottom line. Abbas, even in the eyes of many in his movement, gambled everything on the willingness of the U.S. to press the Israelis to deliver a credible two-state peace solution and lost. Now many of those in Fatah are inclined...