Word: faulted
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...problem, of course, is that the Big One never comes. California has more than 300 faults running beneath its surface, including the massive San Andreas Fault, yet the quake to end all quakes has yet to occur. In 1980, a federal report declared the likelihood of a major earthquake striking California within the next 30 years to be "well in excess of 50%." Seismologists predicted a 1993 earthquake in the community of Parkfield - which lies along the San Andreas Fault - but the quake did not come until 2004. Earthquake prediction is a tricky practice, and one that, for all their...
California's fault zones can match the rest of the world's in terms of earthquake magnitude, but when it comes to human casualties, they barely register a blip. "They're practically nothing," says Richard Allen, an associate professor of earth and planetary science at the University of California, Berkeley. Part of the reason can be attributed to the U.S.'s superior earthquake preparation - California has strict building codes that are designed to prevent structures from collapse, and events like the Nov. 13 ShakeOut teach individuals what to do in an emergency. For the most part, though, the low death...
...coming, promises Allen, there's no question about it. Southern California hasn't had a major upset since Fort Tejon in 1857 and is due any day - or decade - for something of magnitude 6.7 or higher. Northern California is ready for one too; the Hayward Fault, which runs along the east side of the San Francisco Bay, averages a major earthquake once every 140 years. The last one occurred in 1868, exactly 140 years ago. The U.S. Geological Survey puts the odds of a magnitude 7 earthquake occurring within the next 30 years at 60%. Thirty years may seem like...
...Consensus There are fault lines in the Obama coalition, to be sure. In a two-party system, it's impossible to construct a majority without bringing together people who disagree on big things. But Obama's majority is at least as cohesive as Reagan's or F.D.R.'s. The cultural issues that have long divided Democrats - gay marriage, gun control, abortion - are receding in importance as a post-'60s generation grows to adulthood. Foreign policy doesn't divide Democrats as bitterly as it used to either because, in the wake of Iraq, once-hawkish working-class whites have grown more...
...Behind all this flash and exuberance is a stark reality. The southern section of the San Andreas Fault hasn't moved in about 300 years. We know it moves about every 150 years. So California is overdue for a major quake. In April, a new report concluded there is a 99.7% chance that a magnitude 6.7 or stronger quake will shake California within the next 30 years...