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...around the data - and yet we routinely drop such nuance when we talk about economic variables in public conversation. "One of the things that gets lost is the fact that there are ways of trying to assess errors in forecasts," says Robert Eisenbeis, a former researcher at the Atlanta Fed who is now chief monetary economist at the money-management firm Cumberland Advisors. "It's possible to think about these forecasts not as 'GDP is going to be 0.6% this year' but as 'GDP is going to be 0.6% plus or minus something.' What's relevant is how big that...
Even with averaging, though, forecasts can still be wildly disappointing - as the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters shows. In mid-February, the economists collectively predicted a second-quarter unemployment rate of 8.3%. The difference between that and the actual figure, 9.3%, translates into 1.5 million more people unemployed...
...morning, is still declining, though the pace of decline is the slowest in eight months, adding another green shoot to the optimists' garden. A further boost to investor confidence came from just released minutes of the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The minutes revealed that most Fed officials believe the 18-month old recession is nearing...
...Karasiychuk says the ban was not surprising in a country where latent homophobia is fed by a lack of knowledge and stereotyping. But Deputy Culture Minister Kokhan denies that the decision was primarily motivated by issues of homosexuality, pointing out that Brokeback Mountain was distributed in Ukraine after its release...
...Hague for fear of stirring up fresh unrest in Sierra Leone and Liberia - was told about how RUF rebels enslaved and mutilated thousands of civilians, who had their hands and arms severed. Some of the worst crimes were carried out by gangs of child soldiers, who were fed drugs to desensitize them to the horror of their actions. (See pictures of life and death in Sierra Leone...