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Despite the importance of Greenspan's task, he is cagey about his methods. He routinely declines press interviews and will describe his decision-making processes only via circumlocutions that even some veteran Fed watchers find confusing. He relies, of course, on factory reports, unemployment stats and other economic data. But he has also developed his own method to help evaluate the likelihood of various scenarios, assigning a probability to each outcome. His priority, he told the Senate banking committee in June, is understanding "the many sources of risk ... quantifying [them] ... and assessing the costs associated with each...
...possibility that the economy could slip into a deflationary spiral, he opted to cut short-term interest rates to 1%, their lowest level since 1958. "His policy was to move aggressively to pre-empt the chance that this small-probability event would ever take place," says Roger Ferguson, the Fed's vice chairman. "The reward was to avoid any likelihood of deflation or economic collapse, but with a risk the Fed could end up stimulating inflation." It worked out: inflation remained in check...
...every sound Wilco produced captivated the crowd. The audience’s energy, so localized and organic, was not unlike what one might expect from the cult following of an underground rock band. That energy no doubt fed into Wilco’s inspiring stage presence...
...network's mess served members of the Bush campaign beautifully, and not just by taking the focus off the turmoil in Iraq. It fed their story line that they are once again fighting as outsiders. When you control the White House, both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court, it's a neat trick to act like an underdog. But to the extent that the Republicans could turn the Liberal Media into the Establishment enemy, liken themselves to Thomas Paine and Martin Luther, nail their charges to the door, distribute their pamphlets, rally their faithful, it was in the interest...
...multitoned green grass. Fluorescent yellow coconut-scented gorse growing next to electric colored bluebells signaled that, stormy weather aside, this was indeed spring. The next morning the skies cleared and the weather turned summery. Rachel Whyte, a co-proprietor of and the chef at the Glenmachrie Country Guest House, fed me some surprisingly mild-tasting smoked kippers, which, had it not been morning, would have paired well with a Bowmore 17year-old. Bowmore, on the north part of the island, is one of two remaining distilleries (Laphroaig, the other) still peat smoking their barley in house. Try to time your...