Word: feds
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...Greenspan has left Bush a handy platform in the meantime. A growing chorus of economists think Greenspan's last half-point hike in May was overkill, and that the slowdown is indeed happening too fast. The markets are demanding a full point of interest rate cuts from the Fed chairman in the next six months, and many expect him to begin with a surprise, pre-FOMC-meeting cut in the next few weeks, coming perhaps as soon as the next unemployment figures, due out in early January. That would only help Bush set a properly gloomy mood...
...these days, Americans and their politicians trust one economic oracle - and Greenspan is it. And Bush's tax cut will be a snowball in Palm Beach unless the Fed chairman gives it his blessing...
...That was the primary purpose of Bush's well-handled Breakfast at Greenspan's last week. It's also why an ALCOA tin man is heading up Bush's treasury: Paul O'Neill, and Dick Cheney, go back three decades with the fed chairman, and a good relationship with the Fed can be a big help, especially when your old man didn't get along so well with Al. Greenspan will get his chance to sign off when he testifies before Congress this winter...
...percent is soft, 1-2 percent is bumpy but livable. Anything less is the end of the greatest economic expansion in modern history, and a very serious problem for President Bush, even if nobody's at fault but the business cycle (and possibly an overly inflation-obsessed Fed...
...will the flight be in 2001? Bush, selling a tax cut, and the Fed, selling confidence, will be sure to keep everybody posted as the numbers and the reports come in. We may be due for a recession - heck, we may already be in one, and not recognize it yet. And what consumers do from here on out may tell the tale...