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...have a new economy or not? TIME convened a meeting of its Board of Economists in San Francisco this month to assess the impact of the Internet on more traditional arenas like the Fed's monetary policy, the domestic economy, and the breadth of America's socioeconomic divides. Everyone agreed on the easy part ?- the Internet is here to stay, and will have a profound effect on the economic life of the U.S. and the world. But what do we do about it? That, reports TIME senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl, is where the disagreements started. "No one," he says...
...minds are going to be on being safe and protecting their property - not going to the mall." Look for retail sales to dampen considerably for a week or so - and therefore for the month - as folks covering their heads sit on their wallets. Which ought to put the Fed?s mind at ease when September?s numbers come out, just in time for the FOMC board?s next interest-rate sit-down in October. "This still looks like the Goldilocks expansion in place - it?s just right," says Baumohl. And as bears go, Floyd is like Smokey: keeping the economy...
...market's mind was on Greenspan again Wednesday as a tame inflation number - a 0.3 percent hike in the Consumer Price Index, with just a 0.1 hike in the "core" rate - sparked a 100-point rally that traders promptly sold off for fun and profit. On the Fed watch, TIME senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl figures today?s number and yesterday?s ?- a mildly alarming boost in retail sales ?- cancel each other out. "My sense from the last meeting was that the Fed was done unless it saw some clear and unambiguous evidence that inflation was on the rise...
...that seems to be the smartest play. Inflation worries have driven growth stocks, including Merck and Philip Morris, 20% lower. Some tech stocks (AT&T) are way cheaper too. Internet stocks, if you're so inclined (I'm not), have fallen even more. Yet the Fed has had the right answer for every new-age inflation scare. Why bet against Alan Greenspan now? It could be that the new era deserves a new truism. Forget stumble. Call it three steps and a start...
...Smithsonian canceled Foie Gras: A Gourmet's Passion last week after animal-rights activists--including John Gielgud and Bea Arthur--objected, saying the geese who provided the delicacy were force fed. Is it us, or have museums been easily spooked this year...