Word: filming
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While Toronto festival co-director Cameron Bailey is optimistic that by year's end money spent to acquire 2009 TIFF films will be comparable to that of prior years, others say he's dreaming. "Usually there would be one film that came close to a double-digit million-dollar sale, if not hitting that," says Ted Hope, a 20-year veteran indie-film producer whose credits include 21 Grams and The Ice Storm. "Then you would have four or five films in that $4-to-$6 million range and four to seven films in that $1-to-$3 million range...
...fundamental ways. Just look at the way indie filmmakers raise money today. In the past, they would "presell" their movie to foreign distributors, using not much more than a script and a cast list. That meant certain funding for the filmmaker no matter how good or bad the film turned out to be. The filmmaker could then go to a private investor who, knowing that the movie was already presold to foreign territories, would view it as less risky and invest. With money from both foreign rights and private investors, the filmmaker could then secure a bank loan...
That funding model is now dead. One reason is the foreign presell market has dried up - foreign governments now prefer to focus on their domestic film industries. Another reason is that U.S. films are often priced too high for investors to make money on, a problem that has intensified with dropping DVD sales around the world. Without being able to presell foreign territories, everything falls apart. "Imploded is the word I would use," says Roger Smith, senior motion-picture analyst at Global Media Intelligence...
...there any encouraging news from theaters. From 2001 to 2005 independent film made up around 25% of the total domestic-box-office gross. That percentage has dropped to 18% for year-to-date...
...will the indie-film shakeout ultimately play out? Given falling revenue, poor economics and a dearth of new indie projects, financial investors will likely limit commitments to commercially viable films - those offering strong potential for ancillary sales in video games and merchandise. That means more projects directed at the end market for those products - teens. But for hard-core indie investors, those who love taking risks on creative projects and look to hedge their bets by investing across many films, that game is over for now. And indie fans will soon feel...