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What might help us better use economic forecasts, then, is to more explicitly take into account the limits that come with any forecast. You wouldn't find an economist publishing a paper in a journal without margins of error around the data - and yet we routinely drop such nuance when we talk about economic variables in public conversation. "One of the things that gets lost is the fact that there are ways of trying to assess errors in forecasts," says Robert Eisenbeis, a former researcher at the Atlanta Fed who is now chief monetary economist at the money-management firm...
...speech or a businessman's PowerPoint presentation. "Forecasts satisfy a deep psychological need that we live in a somewhat predictable and controllable world," says Philip Tetlock, a professor of organizational behavior at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. "Those are essential stories. People just find the truth" - that the future is unknowable - "too dissonant...
...women frolic in pastel, summer dresses. But Vietti achieves his greatest efficacy in his simplest combinations. When Guenevere meets Arthur in a wintry forest, she dons a white cloak, highlighting her long red hair. The contrast accentuates Guenevere’s fiery passion—the reason that men find her irresistible...
...gotten to the point where I had a dream the other night about a chocolate shop. While we're in the city on our weekends off, us internationals hop from Western establishment to Western establishment, in search of the perfect solution to our culinary cravings. It's hard to find; Cream cheese and chocolate just don't taste the same in Africa. I know that when I get back to my village on Sundays, I will be met with a giant plate of food, and my family will sit and watch me eat until I've finished every last bite...
...late." The biggest challenge is corruption, because as much money as the insurgents are earning off the drug trade, corrupt officials in Afghanistan and Pakistan are earning even more. It's going to be very complex for the U.S. and for the international community, for NATO, to find reliable and trustworthy partners to work with. I don't think that it is widely understood how high up the corruption goes within the Pakistani government, particularly within their military and intelligence forces...