Word: fitching
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...biggest problem will likely be a flood of inventory hitting the market from rising foreclosures, says Bob Curran, a managing director at Fitch Ratings. With a mountain of specialized adjustable-rate mortgages, known as option ARMs and certain Alt-A mortgages, slated to reset over the next 12 to 18 months and unemployment projected to hit 10.5% this year, the number of homeowners defaulting on their mortgages is expected to surge. At least $64 billion in option ARMs will reset in 2010 and another $68 billion in 2011, according to First American CoreLogic, a real estate and mortgage-data company...
...Dillard's, Bon-Ton Stores, JC Penney, Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom and Saks, will likely be squeezed to bring in the biggest markdowns as these retailers typically rely on the holiday season to generate between 45% and 50% of their operating profits, says Karen Ghaffari, a managing director at Fitch Ratings...
...what are the sages saying now that 2010 is just around the corner? Plenty. Next year we'll see oil hit $90 a barrel (per Goldman Sachs), unemployment peak at 10.5% (Fitch Ratings), the value of the dollar with respect to the euro and yen hit bottom (Deutsche Bank), 10-year Treasuries yield more than 4% (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) and small-cap value stocks outperform all other categories (Richard Bernstein Capital Management). As for the stock market more broadly? Strategists at UBS expect gains well into the double-digits. The CEO of PIMCO sees a 10% drop...
...other parts of Europe, things are looking even worse. Shares on the Greek stock market have fallen 9% over the past two days. The parlous state of Greece's public finances has prompted credit-rating agency Fitch to lower the country's debt rating to BBB+, the lowest in the euro zone, Europe's single-currency region. Further blows could follow: rival agencies Moody's and Standard & Poor's have threatened similar moves in recent days. (See 10 things to do in Athens...
Expect to see heavy price-discounting among most retailers this holiday season, but not as aggressive as last year's stunning markdowns. "On average you might see 30% to 50% off, but last year was 75% to 80% off," says Tiffany Co, director of retail at Fitch Ratings. "I don't think we're going to see the kind of panic discounting we saw last year," concurs Richard Jaffe, managing director at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., although he notes that promotions are starting earlier...