Word: florcruz
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...Jaime Florcruz:That's exactly where the challenge is - to avoid setting unrealistic expectations on both sides. It's dangerous to make people think that the first few rounds of talks on this subject could produce agreements or breakthroughs. That's unrealistic. The talks probably began with a lot of finger-pointing and posturing, and lectures from the Chinese side on who is to blame. It was to be expected that the meetings would start out as an ugly gripe session. This was not simply diplomats talking, it was the military establishment on each side having to confront difficult issues...
...Jaime Florcruz: The first is to restrain government officials and the general public from making incendiary remarks. Any insinuation, as I've heard in talk shows and web sites, of starting a boycott of Chinese goods or mounting demonstrations would simply add poison to the already bad atmosphere and won't help find a speedy resolution. In a democratic and free society you can't tell people not to speak their minds. But government would be well advised to refrain from incendiary remarks...
Clinton's challenge looks easy, though, compared with the one faced by his Chinese counterparts. "WTO membership will open China up to competition, which will mean a number of industries that survive only through state subsidies and heavy tariffs are bound to collapse," says TIME Beijing bureau chief Jaime Florcruz. "And that will increase structural unemployment." The more hard-line elements in China's leadership have slowed economic reforms precisely out of fear that the inevitable unemployment will spark social chaos. So by signing on to the WTO deal, Jiang has come down firmly on the side of the reformists...
...without the economic prize his country has sought for more than a decade: a deal with the U.S. to join the World Trade Organization. What makes the failure particularly frustrating is that ?both sides were 95 percent in agreement over the outstanding issues,? says TIME Beijing bureau chief Jaime FlorCruz. What was missing was the handshake -- that is, the trust. ?The economic differences were mostly bridged," says FlorCruz, ?but not the political problems.? China agreed to lower most of the trade barriers the U.S. has long sought to pierce and agreed to live up to those obligations pursuant...
...additional requirement proved to be a deal-breaker for this round of negotiations. ?The Chinese believe they are already taking a big enough risk -- competition -- by seeking to join the WTO,? says FlorCruz. They are not willing to also shoulder the risk of a U.S. veto over their economic decisions. Meanwhile, the administration -- already on the defensive over allegations of Chinese nuclear spying and Chinese campaign contributions -- is concerned about getting burned in Congress over anything Chinese and wants to look tough. U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky showed up on Capitol Hill on Tuesday to sell the American hard line...