Word: flu
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...clear, however, that past pandemics are an appropriate gauge for evaluating the current flu or that the new projections are based on complete data. The eventual death toll of 2009 H1N1 may be less grim than the outcomes of previous pandemics, but it should be noted that 90 years ago, and even 40 years ago, health officials lacked the antiviral therapies and nationwide vaccination capabilities that are available today. That may have contributed to pandemics having a more devastating effect on the health of past populations...
...also less alarming than those provided - also by Lipsitch - to the President's Council of Advisers on Science and Technology last summer near the start of the pandemic. At the time, researchers had only patchy data on the number of people infected by, and seeking treatment for, the new flu. The initially bleak prediction of the impact of H1N1 - with up to 50% of the U.S. population becoming infected in the fall and winter of 2009, resulting in as many as 90,000 deaths - was based on modeling of previous pandemics. (See how not to get the H1N1 flu...
Still, Lipsitch and other health officials acknowledge that the 2009 H1N1 pandemic is not over. What worries health officials most is that as both seasonal and H1N1 flu viruses circulate among the population, the two strains could recombine into a more virulent and aggressive version that could cause more widespread illness and even death. How viruses behave once they nestle into a host is completely unpredictable, but scientists know that in a lab dish, seasonal and H1N1 flu strains mix and match readily. "I'm thinking we may have dodged a bullet here if in fact...
...second wave could still prove more deadly than the seasonal flu, especially for young children. To date, 189 children have died of influenza in the U.S., the majority of them related to H1N1 infection, and that number is already higher than the total number of pediatric deaths attributed to flu in 2008. Lipsitch says that if current trends hold, H1N1 may end up causing as many influenza deaths, if not more, than the seasonal flu, which kills about 36,000 Americans each year. Instead of hitting the elderly the hardest, though, most of the deaths may be among young children...
...looming concern over another winter wave of flu is all the more reason, says Lipsitch, to continue aggressive antiflu efforts, from washing your hands to covering your cough and getting vaccinated. In some states, including New York, there is now enough vaccine to vaccinate everyone over six months old, and not just those in priority groups. "We would expect that prior exposure to a similar strain in the form of a vaccine will provide some priming for future exposures, even if the virus changes a bit," says Lipsitch. In other words, the more people who are vaccinated this year...