Word: fluor
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...especially truckers like Roadway and roadside lodging firms like Cendant, as travelers favor the road over the air. Avoid big airlines. Their cost structures require more business than they're likely to get anytime soon, and even JetBlue and Southwest will struggle. If you think firms like engineering giant Fluor can do well rebuilding Iraq's oilfields, you're right--but late. Fluor's shares have risen 64% since October...
Winners in the first round of the postwar sweepstakes are likely to include many of the same companies that competed to rebuild Afghanistan: Fluor Daniel, Kellogg Brown & Root, Perini, Parsons, the Louis Berger Group and Bechtel. Costs are expected to be lower than in Afghanistan because Iraq has a functioning technocracy that should make design, engineering and construction much faster. "Given all the Iraqis have done to hide their weapons systems and to build palaces and bunkers for Saddam [Hussein]," says a major U.S. contractor, "they'll be able to provide a trained construction work force and sophisticated materials like...
...canned food. How should you invest? If Cleland is right, pent-up demand will lift everything, and popular tech stocks will get more popular. The traditional approach is through beaten-up small stocks, which may be coming into favor anyway. Salomon Smith Barney likes beaten-up big stocks, including Fluor, H&R Block and Hasbro. You've got choices. The first one, though, is to be invested...
...according to the Center for Research in Security Prices at the University of Chicago's graduate school of business. Incredibly, there were more than a few outright losers, including Acuson (-46%), Battle Mountain Gold (-83%), Russell Corp. (-51%) and Toys "R" Us (-29%). Many others were gross laggards (Fluor, International Paper, Kellogg, Reynolds Metals, GM). The analysts messed up by taking Pepsi (+260%) over Coke (+599%), Unilever (+165%) over Gillette (+558%). And a couple of stocks (Waste Management and Compaq) blew up just this year...
...status quo in the utility business is tough to shake. "A lot of people don't want to be the first to get their toes in the water," observes William Speicher, a Zurn executive who sits on Otisca's board. Concurs Ted Rosiak, a project manager with Duke Fluor Daniels: "Utilities tend to be very conservative and try not to take a lot of risks." In fact, risk aversion in the utility business is not just a tendency, it has been a way of life. Since 1935 most of the power suppliers in the U.S. had operated a gridwork...