Word: forde
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...transformation of Ford's debt load looks more complicated than launching the Space Shuttle, and it is. But, if the plans work, the car company will have dispensed with well over a third of its debt...
...works, that is. Ford would like the markets to view this as a series of decisions made from a position of strength. The fact that it is not asking for money from the government would appear to make that true. In reality, holders of Ford's paper would probably rather bargain with the company now than with the government a year from now when every U.S. auto firm will need money again...
...opportunity to deal with Ford directly as opposed dealing with the government is at the core of Ford's decisions. With its sales down nearly 50%, there is no way for it to make it to the end of the year with its current debt structure. What the company is not saying is that it may not be able to make it another six months without outside help. There are only so many costs that can be cut for Ford to remain a viable global car company...
What is left unsaid in the news from Ford is that it is academic whether aid for the car companies comes from their private debt holders or the government. The UAW will bend to another round of concessions. At the rate at which The Big Three probably lost money last month, the industry could need $50 billion or more in financial support between now and the end of this year. That assumes that car sales drop at a rate of only...
...What Ford is trying to do in the private sector and GM and Chrysler are doing with the government may look entirely different today, but the paths will converge as the market for vehicles gets worse. At that point private capital will choose to opt out of the equation entirely. It is not willing to take that kind of risk...