Word: forecast
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...Financial analysts put aside their valuation models to study troop movements, diplomatic machinations and the mind-set of Islamic terrorists. Phenomena like China's entry into the World Trade Organization are still of importance. But for Asia and the rest of the world, the chief variable in any economic forecast...
...ever happened. How will America fight this battle? Ditto. Will the terrorists fight back? If they do, how much more pain will they inflict on the markets? They don't teach Terrorism 101 in business school. In the wake of the attacks, analysts across Asia slashed their GDP growth forecasts to reflect market "uncertainties." The Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo, for example, says Japan's anemic economy will shrink by 0.1% this year, rather than grow at the earlier forecast 1.1%. Banks that had expected Hong Kong's economy to expand by 1% to 2% this year...
...days of the cold war, it was better that the big powers fought proxy wars rather than engage each other. But in the multipolar era the danger of states' losing control of the insurgents they sponsor has soared. It is a reminder of Bismarck's forecast 20 years before the outbreak of World War I: "If there is another war in Europe, it will come out of some damn silly thing in the Balkans." The lesson: don't take Churchill's quip literally. Choose your friends and enemies with equal care, for today's easy way out can create tomorrow...
...which are receiving $15 billion in government aid to compensate for lost business during the grounding of U.S. airliners two weeks ago. Germany?s Lufthansa said it was against state intervention. "Subsidies would influence competition and are not what the market requires," said spokesman Thomas Jachnow. Lufthansa had been forecasting earnings as high as $690 million for the year, but CEO Jürgen Weber said "it will require immense efforts on the part of all Lufthansa staff if we are to avoid an operating loss this year." Weber said North Atlantic advance bookings were down 34% in October...
...wonder, then, that the National Retail Federation predicted a decidedly uncheery holiday shopping season, cutting its sales growth outlook for the fourth quarter from 4% to 2.2%--a forecast that may still be overly optimistic. Or that luxury department store Bergdorf Goodman has canceled the remainder of its fall orders...