Word: forecast
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...subcontinent. Had Harry Truman imagined this circumstance? At the time he made the fateful but valiant decision to nuke Japan, President Truman was controlling what he hoped to be the denouement of a most horrendous global conflict. Though he was initiating the nuclear age, he could not possibly have forecast the dissemination of nuclear know-how to countries which at the time were still under the domain of the late British Empire. Even the Soviets were still in the dark as to the workings of America's newest weapon...
...political base, nor can he necessarily count on the long-term backing of the powerful military. Economists and stock analysts around Asia question Habibie's ability to bring sensible change to Indonesia's choking economy--his big-spending statist policies are anathema to the International Monetary Fund--and politicians forecast continuing turmoil as secular and religious groups compete for influence now that Suharto's strong restraining hand has been lifted...
...mass of speculation and extrapolation, the reports forecast many trends that have come true: decentralization, the communications revolution, the rise of services, genetic engineering, threats to privacy, nuclear proliferation. They were optimistic about the economy, predicting huge increases in personal income and the GNP (they forecast an increase to $3.6 trillion, thus falling short of the actual figure, at latest count, by about $5 trillion). They also foresaw a rise in hedonism and a decline in the work ethic. There were the inevitable misjudgments and omissions--especially, as Bell now concedes, a lack of any reference to the dramatic change...
Numerically, the forecast for 1998, as seen by members of TIME's Board of Economists and most other predictors, looks ho-hum. Steady but moderate growth in production, profits and wages. Little change in rates of inflation, unemployment and interest. Not bad, not great. Just kind...
...question is how badly these forecasts may be knocked askew by the ongoing Asian economic tempest. Henry Kaufman, one of Wall Street's most respected financial analysts, wryly notes that economists most often "forecast usual events because we all have experience" with them. But the Asian breakdown is far outside that experience. "We've gone over 60 years since we've had this kind of a massive disruption...