Word: forecast
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...Barry Goldwater. For 1984, Wharton Econometrics predicts that real disposable income will advance 6.2%. Says Wescott: "Historical analysis suggests that the economic playing field is tilted quite heavily in the incumbent's favor this time." Michael Evans, an economic consultant in Washington, is less cautious about his political forecast. "It is a landslide for Reagan," he says...
...election. Unemployment is nearly 5%, high by the nation's standards. Although inflation is down to 4.1%, from a high of 16% in 1982, the country is saddled with a foreign debt of $6.1 billion and a budget deficit of nearly $2 billion. After Labor's victory, forecast by a major preelection public-opinion poll, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand suspended nearly all trading in foreign currency to prevent a run on the New Zealand dollar (then worth U.S. 62?) by speculators anxious to get their money out of the country. Three days later Labor Party Leader...
...troubles for home computers have hit even mighty IBM. When its PCjr, which sells for $669 and $1,269 in different models, was first marketed in January, analysts forecast that 500,000 would be sold this year. But First Boston's Edelson says results will be less than half that. Mark Wozniak, co-owner of a Sunnyvale, Calif., computer store and brother of Apple Co-Founder Stephen Wozniak, no longer even stocks the PCjr. Says he: "It was too much heartache." Last week, in an effort to spur sales and make the PCjr more compet-/0 itive...
...chief economic adviser: "The Reserve Board is determined to keep the economy within noninflationary speed limits." The economists predicted that the prime rate would move up a bit more in the coming months, to 13% or 13.5%, and then level off. That would be enough, the economists forecast, to moderate growth. The blistering 8.8% rate of rise in the gross national product in the first quarter was something of a fluke, caused in part by a rapid buildup of inventories. By the fourth quarter, G.N.P. growth is expected to slow to a more sustainable 3.5% pace...
...reporting that personal income rose a scant .5% in March, the Government announced that the gross national product grew by an astonishing 8.3% in the first quarter of 1984. That was far above the Commerce Department's 7.2% preliminary estimate, and stunningly higher than the 5%-to-6% forecast for growth that most private economists had made. The gain in the G.N.P. was due primarily to higher inventories, a continuation of vigorous consumer spending and a hefty boost in federal farm subsidies...