Word: forecast
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...Store, Peking's largest, carries more than 300 kinds of makeup; during a recent sale, Peking's No. 7 Clothing Factory sold off all its Western suits in three hours. Few people batted a mascaraed or folded eyelid last month when the China Silk Fashion Color Association announced its forecast in seasoned Parisian tones: "Sprightly beach colors and bronzes of primitive simplicity will be popular in China this spring and summer, with cheerful pastels taking over in the autumn and winter...
...networks continued to forecast the outcome of races, often in advance of any actual tally, based on "exit polls" of people leaving voting places. While the real polls were still open, John Glenn was virtually decreed out of the race by reporters, including ABC's Jennings and NBC's Brokaw in live interviews. Said Glenn: "When you people make projections like that, it discourages an awful lot of good folks from going to the polls...
What if the CIA or the USIA had issued a forecast about, say, an election in Ecuador that was as badly botched and misleading as the predictions doled out by much of the American political industry before the New Hampshire primary? Surely the congressional Pecksniffs would be braying for an accounting and the editorialists would be near exhaustion from their labors of excoriation...
...first, Feldstein was influential in policymaking. He argued that the deficit would hinder the economic recovery and insisted that the Administration project G.N.P. growth for 1983 at a cautious 3%, a forecast in line with what private economists were saying. When the White House was preparing its budget message early last year, Feldstein and Stockman helped persuade the President, over objections from the supply-siders, to propose a contingency tax designed to boost revenues in 1985 if the deficits were still too high. Feldstein's austere outlook and recommendations earned him the nickname "Dr. Gloom...
...recovery turned out to be much more robust than Feldstein and most other economists expected. Last year's growth rate was 6.1%, or double Feldstein's forecast. That miscalculation hurt his standing in the Administration and encouraged the supply-siders...