Word: forecast
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...decision drew predictable protests from organized labor. "It's outrageous," fumed William Winpisinger, president of the International Association of Machinists. "This was never Congress's intent." U.A.W. President Owen Bieber forecast more strikes and less conciliation. Said he: "It won't make sense for a union to grant adjustments to an ailing employer on Monday, merely to have that revised agreement torn up on Tuesday...
...most frightening aspect of the deficits and the national debt is that they may be snowballing out of control. The President's budget predicts that the deficit will remain in the $180 billion range through fiscal 1987, but then will fall to $123.4 billion in 1989. That forecast, however, rests on the shaky assumption that the interest rate the Government must pay on three-month Treasury bills will drop, from an average of 8.6% last year to 5% by 1989. Feldstein has argued that if budget deficits are not reduced in the next few years, interest rates...
Using a more realistic forecast that interest rates will drop only slightly, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) calculated last week that the shortfall might reach $248 billion in 1989. even if all the deficit-cutting measures proposed in the Reagan budget are adopted. That gigantic number is also optimistic: the CBO assumed no new recession for the rest of the decade. Charles Schultze. chief 'economic adviser for Jimmy Carand now a senior fellow at Washington's Brookings Institution, estimates that if another downturn occurs and nothing has been done in the meantime to close the budget...
Capital investment has traditionally been the driving force in the second year of a recovery, and TIME's board was confident it is assuming that role again. Heller found the Commerce Department's forecast of a strong 9.9% increase in 1984 business capital spending too low and suggested that the actual rate will be closer to 14%. Greenspan cautioned, however, that most of the investment has been going for items like computers rather than for factories that are financed by expensive long-term borrowing. He called outlays for new plants "dead in the water...
...should be even better. Sales in January, usually slowed by bad weather, were up 41% from a year ago. That pushed the sales rate on an annual basis to 10.25 million vehicles, and auto executives are saying that 1984 sales of 10.5 million cars are possible. Last October they forecast sales of only 10 million. Indeed, Detroit's carmakers could earn as much as $9 billion this year. Even AMC is anticipating that it will make money. Said GM's Smith: "Our recovery could be even stronger than we've predicted. We're on a roll...