Word: forecast
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...That still leaves the question of Social Security's long-term financing needs, which will be reassessed soon in the system's annual trustees' report. But a couple of years of below-expected payroll-tax receipts shouldn't dramatically change that forecast - and whatever long-run deficits the trustees project for Social Security will pale beside those expected for sister program Medicare...
...centuries, secular intellectuals have forecast the death of religion at the hands of modernity. They got it wrong. In God Is Back, Micklethwait and Wooldridge--the editor in chief and Washington bureau chief, respectively, of the Economist--map a spiritual surge that would bring Nietzsche to tears. "The great forces of modernity--technology and democracy, choice and freedom--are all strengthening religion rather than undermining it," they write. Americans are "exporting their faith" by wedding it to their other gods: belief in free markets and "putting the consumer first." Corporations proudly tout Christian values, pastors like Rick Warren are launching...
...budget, stimulus package, and bank bailout assumptions for employment and revenue are no longer right, the government's pot for solving the nation's economic problems is already light. The Administration's forecast is that unemployment will average 8.1% this year and 7.9% next year. The CBO estimates are a bit higher. Based on where unemployment stands now and where it will likely be at mid-year, none of those numbers is even remotely realistic. (See pictures of the Top 10 scared traders...
...Even worse, in the eyes of Obama's task force, is that GM was immodest in its assumptions. For instance, GM had forecast a market-share loss of 0.3% per year until 2014. The task force noted that GM has been losing market share at a rate of 0.7% per year for the past 30 years - and GM was planning to drop brands and nameplates. The task force had no reason to think that GM could gain share, and its sales rate proved that point. Industry-wide, March auto sales were down 40% on a seasonally adjusted basis...
...once recovery comes, new jobs are created in sufficient numbers to swiftly bring the jobless rate back down again. But ask him about the German short-work measures, and he's skeptical. "They can't stop rising unemployment," he says, "they just delay it." Indeed, in its latest economic forecast released March 31, the OECD expects unemployment in Germany to rise from its current 8.6% to 11.6% by the end of 2010 - higher than many of its European neighbors - despite the special job-preservation measures. The organization expects Japan's unemployment rate will also rise, although less dramatically, to above...