Word: forecast
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...danger of filing for Chapter 11. It is worth considering how the researchers came up with that number, given that there are tens of thousands of retailers and hundreds of thousands of stores in America. Why wasn't the number 9% or 27%? The answer is that the forecast is virtually useless, something like counting the number of poisonous snakes in an Indiana Jones movie...
...meantime, Ann Taylor will close nearly 20% of its stores. The company has 5,500 workers. A lot of those people will lose their jobs. Closing 20% of the Ann Taylor stores is probably about right. This forecast is as accurate as any available because it is based on real trends in the retail industry...
...percent accuracy—which the researchers said was a significant improvement over previous models, which only predicted risk with 50 percent accuracy. Originally used for artificial intelligence, the Bayesian network was used to screen 1,313 genes in 569 individuals and turned up 37 that worked collectively to forecast a cardioembolic stroke. Lead author and Medical School Associate Professor Marco F. Ramoni said he first explored predicting stroke risk after observing a high rate of strokes in a 2005 sickle-cell anemia study he conducted. That began a collaboration with Karen L. Furie, Mass. General’s director...
...sharply, and even companies that have been considered rock-solid, such as GE (GE) and Microsoft (MSFT), admit that their core businesses are being hurt badly and are coy about when they think the situation will improve. Large companies have gotten into the habit of saying that they cannot forecast earnings because they have "limited visibility." In most cases that means they cannot predict their sales beyond the current quarter. (See pictures of Bill Gates' early years...
...president's team of financial experts has predicted that the economy will grow by 3.2% next year, 4% in 2010, and 4.6% in 2012. It would be hard to find a well-regarded forecast which is that optimistic. The IMF has a much darker view of the pace of economic recovery. Even the organization that produces the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, known for only talking to the most optimistic experts, has estimated economic expansion far short of those used in the Budget...