Word: forecast
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What touched off last week's weakness was a new forecast issued the previous Friday by Salomon Brothers' Henry Kaufman, one of Wall Street's most respected prognosticators. He said that U.S. interest rates, which have been falling for five months, could continue to ease because of sluggishness in the economy. The prospect of lower interest rates drives down the value of the American currency because it makes foreigners less eager to convert their money into dollars for investment...
...Sprinkel, the chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, had reason to gloat a bit last week. For months he had been arguing that the U.S. economy would bounce back strongly from its poor performance during the first half of the year. Many private economists dismissed his forecast as predictable optimism from a White House cheerleader, but now it appears that Sprinkel may have been right. The Government said last week that the gross national product expanded at a 4.3% annual rate during the July-September quarter. That was far better than the 1.1% growth rate...
...warned that growth will not be enough to solve deep-rooted problems like unemployment. Hans Mast, an executive vice president of Crédit Suisse, agreed. Said he: "Unemployment in Europe has many demographic, structural and social causes that cannot be redressed simply." He also pointed out that his upbeat forecast assumed that U.S. economic performance would improve. "Ultimately," Mast said, "Europe cannot prosper unless the rest of the world is prospering...
ITALY. Carli forecast continued growth at around 2.5% this year. Despite that rather modest expansion, companies have enjoyed hefty profits because they have increased prices and kept capital investments low. But the Italian public debt, now 101.9% of the gross national product, is expected to grow another...
...sunny economic forecast is clouded, however, by a slowdown in international trade, which grew by only 3% last year, after a robust 9% expansion in 1984. Efforts to boost trade this year could be hurt by growing protectionism. In Congress last week, President Reagan barely defeated a challenge in the Senate Finance Committee, when rebellious legislators fell one vote short of the majority needed to block impending negotiations on free trade with neighboring Canada. Meanwhile, the U.S. and the European Community are holding talks in an effort to resolve an argument over restrictions on American agricultural exports to Spain...