Word: forecaster
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Dates: during 1950-1959
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...wife criminologist team. The Glueck (rhymes with look) team has published three near classics on the subject: 500 Criminal Careers, One Thousand Juvenile Delinquents, Unraveling Juvenile Delinquency. Last week the Gluecks published their latest study: Predicting Delinquency and Crime (Harvard University; $6.50). Its startling premise: criminal behavior can be forecast almost as accurately as an insurance company figures the odds on accident and death...
...billion annual federal deficit to sustain demand; of a kidney ailment; in Boston. A startlingly accurate economic prophet, Slichter usually championed the minority view. When his fellow economists took a leaf from Marx and gloomily predicted the stagnation of a mature economy in the '30s, Slichter forecast the growth of the '40s. When his colleagues prepared for a depression to follow World War II, Slichter predicted the boom. Trained as a labor economist, Slichter never let his bias warp his judgment, ruffled labor leaders by labeling the postwar economy "laboristic," recommending stronger laws against picket line abuses...
...died in an 18-month period of hepatitis and amoebic dysentery. A rat-infested house on the atherapeutic isle served as prison for the man who had marched vast armies from Moscow to Madrid, and once ruled half the Christian world. Only a few years before, Napoleon had unwittingly forecast his fate: "It is but a step from the sublime to the ridiculous...
...back as 1955, United knew that it would be late with jets when President W. A. Patterson, over hot opposition in :he company, turned down the 707 in favor of the DC-8 of its longstanding supplier, Douglas. Because of late delivery of the planes, Patterson gloomily forecast a $3 million to $10 million loss for 1959. Traffic did drop 20% on transcontinental routes, but United has confounded its president's prediction: the line showed a $7,000,000 profit for the first half, expects to end the year well in the black. United was helped by the general...
They based their forecast on the fact that each postwar cycle has had two or three years of expansion, followed by one or two years of contraction. The current boom got under way 17 months ago, and the key indicators are cycling ahead of schedule. Manufacturers' new orders snapped back to pre-slump peaks in 13 months v. 17 months in the 1953 slump, 16 months in the 1948 slowdown; personal income recovered peak levels in 14 months v. 16 months in the other two postwar recessions. Last week the Commerce Department announced that spending for new plant...