Word: forecaster
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri and parts of Kansas, Michigan and Wisconsin. Temperatures dropped as low as 19° F below zero, putting a hard crust on the blanket and turning whole counties into blocks of ice. Said Allen Pearson, director of the National Weather Service's Severe Storms Forecast Center in Kansas City: "If you liken a storm to someone wringing out a towel, this one was just superefficient...
There is a general feeling of revival in Western Europe, even though forecast growth rates remain well below those seen before the oil embargo. In West Germany it is spurred by Europe's strongest economy; in France by a determined shift away from government regulation toward private enterprise; in Italy by a still troubled but convalescing economy...
Economics commentators have long been more preoccupied with forecasting the quirks of the economic apparatus than with reporting how it actually works. In fact, they probably do the former poorly because they do the latter so little. To be sure, economic prophecy even at its most serious level is not, even with its computer printouts, all that far from tea-leaf reading. Only last week the New York Times mourned that the forecasts for 1978 it obtained from eight top-grade professionals "read like a nostalgic collection of unfulfilled hopes and unwarranted fears." (Examples: The Council of Economic Advisers...
...Board of Economists has a good record of prognostication for previous years, but any forecast is subject to error. The most President Carter will concede is that real G.N.P. growth next year may fall below his official target of 3%. The Administration script calls for a "soft landing"-two or three quarters in which output gains are small but nonetheless real. High interest rates, in the opinion of Carter's advisers, no longer bite down as hard on business activity as they once did, and so far there are no signs of the imbalances, like a pile...
...economists on the TIME board fear that their forecast may be too optimistic. Eckstein sees a 1-in-5 chance that frenzied borrowing, and buying of houses and other goods by consumers before prices go up even more, would continue to keep expansion rolling through much of next year. It would be nothing to cheer about, he adds, because inflation would continue to accelerate and the Government would have to press down even harder on the economy. Result: a recession that does not start until late 1979 but is then worse than anybody now foresees, lasting for as many...