Word: forecaster
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...most anticipated recession in history has arrived earlier and with a more forceful jolt than expected. Instead of the gradual slide that economists were predicting would begin in midsummer or early fall, the second-quarter gross national product fell at a substantial annual rate of 3.3%. Most forecasters had anticipated that the downturn at worst would bring a decline of 2% or so. In a confidential revised forecast last week, some top governmental economists conceded that the slump will be worse than anticipated this year and will be followed by an "anemic" recovery...
...annual rate during the second quarter, meaning that the recession has almost certainly begun. G. William Miller, the Treasury Secretary-designate, also warned that the energy aggravated slump would be deeper and longer than the mild slowdown of six to nine months that the Administration has so far forecast. Miller's projections: unemployment rising from last month's 5.6% to 8.3% of the labor force next year, inflation continuing to roar at a double-digit pace in excess of 10% at least through...
...increase in oil prices-approximately 60% since January-will send the developed nations into their worst economic slowdown since the first round of OPEC price gouging touched off the 1974-75 recession. So says the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in its semi-annual forecast covering 24 member nations of the industrial world. In the next twelve months, predicts the OECD, their economic growth will average 2%, down from 3.7% last year; their inflation will rise from 7.9% to 10%; and their unemployment may swell from 5.25% to 6%, a postwar record of 19 million people out of work...
...forecast found that the U.S. will have no growth at all. Elsewhere, performances will range from flat in Britain to a healthy 4.5% to 5% expansion in Japan. West Germany, Europe's trusty "locomotive," will slow to about 3%, while France will do well to reach 2.5%. Because of higher prices for oil, balance of payment deficits for the OECD countries will double, to $40 billion. Meanwhile, the combined surpluses of the OPEC cartel will also double, to $70 billion...
Eckstein said McGraw-Hill's style of management would let DRI maintain its independence and develop. "McGraw-Hill, for instance, owns Business Week but they don't tell them what to print--and they won't tell DRI what to forecast about the economy," Eckstein said yesterday...