Word: forecasters
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...have been giving him for several weeks: his proposed tax cut of about $25 billion is too large. In December, when he first proposed a cut of that size, Administration economists figured that it was needed to stimulate profits, investment and employment, and thus head off a business slowdown forecast for the second half of the year. Since then, inflation has picked up speed, to an annual rate of 9.2% during the first quarter of the year. Observed Charles Schultze, Carter's chief economic adviser: "Economic conditions change, and we would be idiots not to change...
...quarter ran at an annual rate of 9.6%, within reach of the double-digit range that separates merely unacceptable from runaway inflation. G. William Miller, the new chairman of the Federal Re serve Board, projects that inflation for the year is likely to average 6.5% to 7%. a higher forecast than the Administration's official prediction, but one that seems more likely to be right...
...Murphy is the most vocal bull in the auto industry, and he is out on a lengthening limb. While other auto chiefs forecast that Americans this year will buy about 11 million cars, slightly below last year's near record. Murphy takes all those reports on his desk, puts them through his own mental calculator, adds some instincts that come from his 40 years in the nation's most important industry, and tells one and all that the figure will approach 11,750,000. Sales were set back by the worst winter he has ever seen...
...attitudes. They love it as an unrivaled spectacle and fear it as an unrivaled destroyer. One day they curse the rain, the next they dream of walking in it barefooted with a lover. They study meteorology in school, while clinging to the conviction that the weather can be forecast on the basis of the behavior of bugs, animals and vegetation. Groundhog day is still observed...
General Motors' Chairman Thomas Murphy was still adhering last week to his hopeful forecast of 11.75 million cars to be sold in the U.S. this year. That would be handsomely above the 11.1 million units sold in 1977, and even ahead of the record 11.4 million cars sold in 1973. Most other auto executives' predictions are in Murphy's ballpark, though not quite so far up in the bleachers. Even industry analysts on Wall Street, who are generally less optimistic than the automen, see a good if not great year ahead, with sales well above 10 million...