Word: forecasters
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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Brown's forecast assumes, as most economists do, that incomes and productivity will increase in the 1970s at the same rate that they did in the past decade. By 1985, some 16% of U.S. families are expected to be earning $25,000 or more a year, five times the current percentage. Since 1959, the number of persons below the official poverty level has fallen from 39.5 million to 25.4 million, a drop from 22% to only 12% of the population; the rate of decline has been accelerating in re cent years. Popular myth to the contrary, says Herman Miller...
...Rome's suburban Sport Palace for a four-hour rally to celebrate the 50th anniversary of that event. Party Secretary Luigi Longo, grizzled and ailing at 70, was presented with a framed replica of his 1921 membership card along with a 1971 model. He declared proudly: "The forecast was that our life would be short. Today no one can ignore our presence and our strength...
...could argue with Longo's boast, as far as it goes. Italy's robust Communist Party has not just survived, it has thrived. But it has fallen far short of another forecast. At the time of the 1921 Leghorn meeting, it was the view of Lenin and the Comintern that Italy had all the "required conditions to guarantee the victory of the great proletarian revolution." Lenin, in fact, saw not only Italy but much of Western Europe as ripe ground for Communism, thanks to its broad base of industrial workers. Today there are Communist or Marxist regimes...
...Black Africa to be despaired of, then? By no means. As TIME Nairobi Correspondent John Blashill notes: "Independence has not brought prosperity, nor even, in many cases, political freedom. But neither has Black Africa collapsed, as the South Africans had forecast and many Belgians, among others, had hoped. Its leaders have become less dogmatic, more realistic about what they can do and how fast. In the long run, their prospects are bright. Africa is rich, salted with minerals, blessed with vast stretches of fertile land. It is underpopulated and underexploited. Properly cultivated, it could feed the world by itself...
...department stores, cash-register tapes for the Christmas season are running scarcely above last year's cheerless levels. The National Retail Merchants Association in November had predicted a rise of 6%. Then its officials took one look at the early returns and revised their forecast to a 3% or 4% gain. Considering inflation, that would amount to as much as a 3% drop in the volume of goods actually sold...