Word: forecasters
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...consequences can be nightmarish. The New York Stock Exchange, whose members thrive or fail according to their ability to forecast, predicted a few years ago that daily trading volume might hit 10 million shares by 1975. Trading surged past that level in 1968. A mountain of paper work fell on exchange members, and they did not have enough men or machines to dig out. The Big Board went on short trading hours early in 1968, and has still not bounced back to a full trading week. In a similar way, demand for electricity has shocked power-company executives. Managers...
...dubbed the winter rebound, draws some of its support from cuts in the prime lending rate, from 8½% to 8%, by a handful of small banks. Though executives of most major banks have scoffed at the reductions as premature, last week's mix of economic fact and forecast strengthened Wall Street's conviction that easier money is on the way. One indication: the Dow-Jones Municipal Bond index declined last week to 6%, the lowest level since last October...
Mini-Micro. Now Walter Heller makes this forecast: real G.N.P. may decline at annual rates of 0.5% this quarter and next, on top of a drop at an annual rate of 0.4% in the last quarter of 1969. An upturn will begin in the second half, fueled by higher Social Security benefits and the scheduled July end to the income surtax. By the fourth quarter, the rebound will have "visible means of support." Dollar G.N.P. for 1970 will run between $980 billion and $985 billion, about $5 billion below the most common forecast of board members last December, but just...
...save money, many plans are being deferred or stretched out. The steel industry last year reduced its capital spending from a projected $2.4 billion to $2.1 billion, and hardly any industry leaders still expect this year's forecast of $2.2 billion to hold up. Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel Corp. is switching the product mix of its flat-rolled steel line; the company plans to produce fewer unfinished items and more higher-priced finished steels used for auto bodies and appliances. Aluminum Co. of America is dropping some marginally profitable lines, notably welded tubing and automobile pistons. Inventories are coming under...
...Recession? Nixon's Economic Report, supported by the findings of his Council of Economic Advisers, forecast both less inflation and less growth for the economy this year than last. Gross national product should rise about 5½% to $985 billion, the CEA predicted, compared with the too swift 7.7% expansion during 1969. The trick, of course, is to keep the anti-inflationary slowdown from growing into a grave economic slump. Last week, stock prices, often an advance indicator of broader economic trends, fell to their lowest level since November 1963 (see BUSINESS). Still, Nixon told his news conference...