Word: forecasters
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DIED. LESLIE KISH, 90, statistician who formulated, among other things, the "margin of error," an assessment of the accuracy of opinion polls; in Ann Arbor, Mich. Kish used his new population sampling techniques in 1948 to predict a narrow Truman victory over Dewey--when almost everyone had forecast a Dewey landslide...
...weather forecast for this weekend is sunny with a temperature in the mid-60s. It promises to be perfect weather for a perennially memorable event...
Gore can promise a boatload of money for programs (and another $480 billion for tax cuts) yet still lay claim to eliminating the debt because of the government's forecast of a gaudy $4.6 trillion budget surplus over the next decade. The projected income may or may not materialize, depending on how the economy performs, but it allows him to boast of putting aside $2.8 trillion for Social Security and Medicare while leaving a $300 billion "rainy-day fund" untouched. Although his Medicare plan would encourage price competition between managed-care providers--it's not the one-size-fits...
...Gore can promise a boatload of money for programs (and another $480 billion for tax cuts) yet still lay claim to eliminating the debt because of the government's forecast of a gaudy $4.6 trillion budget surplus over the next decade. The projected income may or may not materialize, depending on how the economy performs, but it allows him to boast of putting aside $2.8 trillion for Social Security and Medicare while leaving a $300 billion "rainy-day fund" untouched. Although his Medicare plan would encourage price competition between managed-care providers - it's not the one-size-fits...
Alan Blinder, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, a prestigious liberal-leaning Washington think tank, and vice chairman of the Federal Reserve from June 1994 to January 1996, asserted that the consensus forecast of most economists seems to be for gross domestic product (that is, total output of goods and services) to grow about 3% to 3.5% over the next year. He would go along, said Blinder, but consumer demand may not be letting up as much as Cohen thinks, and business has an "insatiable demand" for--and appetite to invest in--new information technology. So those predicting...