Word: forecasters
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Moved PermanentlyMoved PermanentlyFortune Investor Data"This is the big break the markets have been waiting for after a week of bad news," says TIME senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl. "The pace of new job creation for August is less than what economists had forecast, and the pressure on wages has been slight." That spells low inflation, notes Baumohl, and it means that worries about another Fed rate hike this year have been, if not entirely put to rest, at least sent upstairs for a nice long nap. Burgers? Hey, why not break out the steaks...
...years of running money professionally, I always marveled at how few people could predict the direction of the next point or two. Irrational factors, chance motions and temporary buy-and-sell imbalances are almost impossible to forecast...
...FUTURES Worried your nest egg won't be big enough? A free online service will forecast the long-term value of your 401(k). After years of consulting for big pension funds, Nobel-prizewinning economist Bill Sharpe packaged his simulation software into the easy-to-use www.financialengines.com If you want to pay $14.95 a quarter, the service will advise you on how to improve your asset allocation. Compare its forecasts with ones from www.fplanauditors.com which uses historical data to evaluate all your assets...
Should you buy UPS when it goes public? Big Brown is a great company that's been growing earnings steadily through cost cutting and world expansion. It's getting an incremental boost from the Internet. In the second quarter, reported last Thursday, its income jumped 28%, and the company forecast "a significant increase" in this holiday season's e-commerce. Last year UPS delivered 3 billion packages in 200 countries, earning $1.7 billion on sales of $24.8 billion--way bigger numbers than FedEx's. And there's no place in the U.S. that UPS doesn't go. If e-commerce...
Unfortunately for me, a proud Valley-dweller, it won't be until the end of the summer (the optimistic forecast) that the line is extended across the Hollywood Hills. Besides that however, living in the Valley is no drawback. While it may be a social faux pas to mention my address at parties, the spaciousness, easy access to the local park, library and YMCA (not to mention low rent) make me glad I'm not living in a noisy, crowded apartment ensconced in some flashy zip code which would not deign to have a bus stop between their palm trees...