Word: forecasters
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...just what happened: at one point this winter, it was snowing in Guadalajara, Mexico, while thermometers in Saskatchewan registered in the 50s. That doesn't mean the scientists are always right, of course. They can make broad-brush predictions of El Nino's effects without being able to forecast exactly what will happen in any given place. Some of the early prediction scenarios--no snow for the Olympic Winter Games at Nagano and monsoon failure in India--never materialized...
Many will disagree with my forecast, but I offer it because predictions are always interesting in retrospect, whether right or wrong. Upon the celebration of the 150th anniversary of The Crimson, the editors of the future will have something to look back upon and analyze--six predictions that will later be deemed stupid, ironic or, hopefully, right on target...
...most unflinching public view of a company determined to get those kids. In a 1975 memo, company official J.W. Hind urged R.J.R., maker of Camel, Winston and Salem, to "increase its share penetration among the 14-24 age group." One year later, a 10-year planning forecast prepared for the board of directors and stamped RJR SECRET noted that 14-to-18-year-olds were "an increasing segment of the smoking population" and proposed a brand aimed at them...
...responsibility for Time Warner's music division in 1995, yet they continue to micromanage studio operations. Still, thanks to strong TV and overseas operations, Warner's entertainment division is expected to report that income rose 10% in 1997, and Wall Street sources say they have heard the division has forecast a 20% increase...
That may sound like a dismal forecast for next year--and in another era it would be. In making these predictions, however, members of a specially convened TIME Board of Economists are bubbling with optimism. In 1998, they think, the U.S. will enjoy a stunning sixth straight year of steady growth, relatively stable prices and low unemployment. Yes, the performance will be less spectacular than this year's--but then 1997 has been a vintage year. By almost any other comparison, 1998 should be more than satisfactory...