Word: forecasters
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Just how far and how fast will the economy drop this quarter? There's lately been a race to the bottom among forecasters, with the economists at Goldman Sachs leading the way. Early in the week, they put out a report saying that -3.5% annualized GDP growth was their baseline forecast for the quarter, but they also went so far as to outline a "just awful" scenario of -6.0% and a "worst case" of -7.8%. Today they updated their baseline forecast...
...city in 2003, stalling the economy for months on end. GDP shrank 0.5% in the third quarter - the second consecutive quarter-on-quarter contraction. That officially means Hong Kong is in a recession, and it doesn't look likely to end any time soon. The government lowered its forecast for 2008 growth from 4-5% to 3-3.5%. "The global financial turmoil has derailed the economic upturn that Hong Kong has enjoyed," government economist Helen Chan told reporters. (See pictures of the global financial crisis...
...indeed, it was news of the recession that sent stock traders into a frenzy of buying on Friday, there may be more bullish boosts to come in the weeks and months ahead. A new forecast by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts a 0.3% decline of its members' economies next year. That, the OECD forecasts, will be led by a 1% decline in growth in the U.S., a 0.5% contraction in Europe, and 0.1% downturn in Japan. Evidence to back that projection came with Friday's announcement that economic growth across the euro-zone decreased...
...LATEST COVER STORY The Whistle Blowers Partnership: Bush & Cheney Crusader: Eliot Spitzer December 30, 2002 Issue Past Issues Forecast 2003 Dec. 23, 2002 ----------------- Burma's Drug Army Dec. 16, 2002 ----------------- Diabetes Dec. 9, 2002 ----------------- Lure of the Rings Dec. 2, 2002 ----------------- Bali Bomb Suspects Nov. 25, 2002 ----------------- Yao Ming Nov. 18, 2002 ----------------- China Culture Nov. 11, 2002 ----------------- North Korea Nov. 4, 2002 ----------------- After Bali Oct. 28, 2002 ----------------- Tadanobu Asano Oct. 21, 2002 ----------------- China's Most Wanted Oct. 14, 2002 ----------------- Headache Prevention Oct. 7, 2002 ----------------- Asia's AIDS Crisis Sep. 30, 2002 ----------------- China's New Rich...
Such a rebound will be welcomed by the Irish government. Thanks to the fall in tax receipts caused by the housing-market collapse, Ireland's budget deficit is forecast to hit 5.5% of GDP this year - well beyond the 3% limit imposed by Brussels. That has left Dublin little room to spend its way out of trouble, a fact made clear when Finance Minister Lenihan announced a slew of tax hikes and spending cuts...