Word: forecasters
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...three esteemed football beat writers all selected the home team to reclaim the Ivy title. The one dissenting voice? Yours truly. There is too much uncertainty—in the middle of the defense, on the offensive line, and behind center—for me to forecast less than two losses in good conscience. HARVARD (1-0) AT BROWN (1-0)If you listen to coach Phil Estes, the Bears have a chip on their shoulders from the dis they received in the preseason Ivy media poll, relegated to third place despite a championship in 2005. Harvard has a blue...
...this month, Iran will respond to the West's incentives package to negotiate over its nuclear program. In all likelihood, it will either say no or hedge, and the stage will be set for a drawn-out confrontation whose outcome will be determining to the Middle East. Eager to forecast what will happen, and to clarify what kind of threat Iran proposes, observers are grasping for clues everywhere, from Iran's ancient history to its religious practices. Many of these arguments lead away, not toward, the very real tensions dividing the country. Here are two analytical pitfalls to avoid...
...Marvel's future remains a cliff-hanger. "It's definitely one of the more--if not the most--difficult companies out there to forecast," says Bear Stearns analyst Glen Reid. In late May, just as Marvel kicked off what may be the greatest test of its powers yet--a slate of 10 independently financed films--the firm stunned investors and Hollywood alike by announcing that Avi Arad, the man behind the Spider-Man and X-Men film franchises, would leave to start his own production company. Not six weeks later, two more key execs departed unexpectedly--Tim Rothwell and Bruno...
...looks bright for the $3.5 billion casket industry. Over the next 20 years, the baby-boom generation, despite its considerable efforts to the contrary, will start to meet mortality, swelling the death rate in the U.S. from 2.4 million a year to 3.2 million. By 2040, annual deaths are forecast to hit 4.1 million. You'd think the big casketmakers--Batesville, York and Aurora, which together produce at least 70% of all caskets sold in the U.S.--would be resting easy...
...Number of hurricanes Colorado State University researchers are predicting this season, scaling back the initial forecast of 9 hurricanes they issued in December...