Word: forecasting
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...outright global recession, economists concede, is still a real possibility. "The risks of a deeper, wider, more prolonged downturn have escalated," the International Monetary Fund reported in its most recent global forecast; the Commerce Department said last month that in August the trade deficit ballooned $2.2 billion, to $16.8 billion. Warning signs abound that this involves more than just collapsing Asian and Latin American markets. After years of low unemployment, a number of major U.S. companies have responded to their earnings troubles with year-end job cuts, among them Merrill Lynch (3,400), Raytheon (14,000), LSI Logic...
Local authorities defend the deal with a rosy economic forecast prepared for Greater Louisville Inc., the metropolitan area Chamber of Commerce. The chamber study predicts that 6,000 UPS jobs "will spawn nearly 8,000 additional jobs" throughout the region. It is estimated that all those jobs in turn "will generate more than $477 million annually in payroll growth." As is the case with many economic-impact statements, the numbers are fuzzy. But whatever the case, growth would have occurred somewhere in the U.S., perhaps even in Louisville, where UPS is already heavily invested. To remain competitive...
...sure, traditional sports retain huge audiences and monstrous marketing clout; the Super Bowl is watched by almost a billion people every year. But the era of the three-sport nation may be coming to a close just as surely as the era of the three networks. Experts forecast a future of a thousand TV channels, which will be looking for even more sports programming...
...late to buy bonds? Can interest rates keep sliding? We are at historic lows already, and rates are famously difficult to forecast. To make an additional 25% gain in zeros from here, the T-bond yield would have to drop to about 4%. A further tumble sounds incredible, I know. You have to recognize zeros as an aggressive bet. But it could pay. Inflation, the greatest threat to bondholders, is truly dead, and the world and U.S. economies are weakening fast--developments that argue for lower rates...
...midpoint of the women's soccer season has come and gone, and Harvard's forecast for what remains looks bright...