Word: forecasting
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...goes as his doctors have forecast, Ronald Reagan will return to the White House from Bethesda Naval Hospital at midweek -- a month before his 76th birthday -- ready to face the challenges of his last two years in office. But with how much energy and effectiveness? The answer depends only partly on the outcome of the colonoscopy and prostate surgery scheduled for the President early this week. Even if those procedures turn out to be as routine as predicted and Reagan once again demonstrates his remarkable powers of physical recuperation, he faces a daunting task of political recovery. Almost immediately...
...forecast for further growth largely rests on the increasing conviction that the U.S. has started to make progress against its most draining economic problem: the huge trade gap. For the most part, that gap is the legacy of an American dollar that was too strong in the first half of the decade. That made foreign goods cheap in the U.S. and U.S. exports too expensive in other countries, and the resulting trade imbalance has created a heavy drag on growth. But in recent weeks economists have become persuaded that the nearly two-year decline in the U.S. dollar may have...
Formidable Forecast...
Despite the ample causes for concern, chances are good that the economy will shake its slump and gather new momentum. That was the consensus of the TIME Board of Economists, which met in New York City this month to discuss the outlook. The economists forecast that GNP growth, after adjustment for inflation, will accelerate from an annual rate of .6% in the second quarter to 2.4% in the last half of the year. For 1987 they predict a sturdy, if not spectacular, 3% growth rate. Said Walter Heller, a University of Minnesota professor who was chairman of the Council...
...danger in not dealing forcefully with the deficit now is that when a recession comes, Congress will not be able to combat it with a large boost in Government spending. The budget imbalance, said Heller, has canceled the country's antirecession insurance policy. Fortunately, if the economists' forecast is correct, the White House and Congress still have at least a year or two to rein in the deficit before the next downturn strikes...