Word: forecasting
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...Forecasters scanning the horizon for an economic recovery have begun to feel a bit like Vladimir and Estragon, those frustrated characters in the play Waiting for Godot who keep expecting something that never happens. Now in its 18th month, the recession has been a longer-running and more tragic drama than almost anyone originally predicted. For that reason, the TIME Board of Economists was extraordinarily cautious as it met last week in New York City to survey the outlook for the new year. The economists expect the recovery to begin during the first quarter of 1983, but rarely have they...
BRITAIN. Board Member Brittan, while acknowledging that he had overestimated the growth in Britain during 1982, argued that in 1983 the U.K. economy could expand by as much as 2.3%, in contrast to the current 1% consensus forecast of most analysts. Said he: "Either the economy will not take off at all or it will grow a good deal faster than most believe." Brittan based his forecast on the stimulative effect of a planned March 1983 tax cut, as well as the impact of the recent decline in interest rates, which has not yet been felt in the economy. Though...
ITALY. Normally governments produce only one economic forecast at a time, but this year Italy's Budget and Economic Planning Ministry is hedging its bets, offering not one but two differing views of the year ahead. The first assumes firm action against out-of-control public spending and a roaring budget deficit, and the alternative outlook assumes no action at all. According to Carli, the bizarre bureaucratic maneuver was a dramatic demonstration of the political dilemma facing the country. The present mountainous deficit of $52 billion amounts to fully 15.5% of the gross national product, and threatens if unchecked...
Over the past several years, almost no business has grown faster than video games, but last week stocks of most of the industry's highflying participants came crashing down with a thud. Warner Communications, owner of Atari, the king of video games, unexpectedly forecast a slump in fourth-quarter earnings. The news reverberated through Wall Street. Analysts began recalculating profit estimates of the best-known games manufacturers, trying to divine whether the Atari setback had more cosmic implications. By week's end no one was quite ready to declare that the stock market was flashing a bleak "Game...
Suddenly last week, Consumer Products Division President Perry Odak, 37, who had been with Atari for only eight months, was ousted. Although his removal was attributed to personality differences, the announcement came the same day as the revised fourth-quarter forecast. Warner now predicts that it will earn only about $4.05 or $4.10 a share this year. While that is an increase of 10% to 15% over 1981, it is well below analysts' earlier estimates of as much...