Word: forecasting
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...Forecasts by experts outside the Administration are even more disquieting. Last week Alice Rivlin, director of the Congressional Budget Office, warned a House banking subcommittee that the deficit could reach $100 billion in fiscal 1984, even if the economy performs well. A deficit of that magnitude would make a mockery of the fiscal conservatism that Reagan promised would be a hallmark of his Administration. One of the most alarming projections of all came from Chase Econometrics, an economic consulting firm, which forecast that without future changes in the law to reduce spending, the deficit will be $144 billion...
...every one percentage point decline in annual gross national product translates into approximately $8 billion to $10 billion in additional deficit spending because tax receipts fall off and unemployment insurance payments rise. The Administration's Council of Economic Advisers had been expected to come up with a firm forecast of economic activity for 1982 three weeks ago, as part of the process of preparing the fiscal 1983 budget that Reagan will submit to Congress in January. But the report is still incomplete because of the inability of top Administration economists to agree on the depth of the recession...
...says that the system will have to work with the state legislature to modify Prop. 2 1/2 and at the same time find other sources of revenue. Otherwise, the anticipated cuts might "destroy the school system," Duehay adds. Superintendent of schools William C. Lannon, has made much the same forecast for the coming year, explaining that if the school sustain further funding cuts, the system will not have enough teachers to fill the classrooms...
...increase Government spending for measures like unemployment compensation. Thus the slump now under way seems sure to worsen federal deficits that already are spiraling out of control. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Pete Domenici estimated last week that the deficit in fiscal 1982 could total $60 billion, vs. an Administration forecast of $43 billion, and could be $70 billion in fiscal 1984, the year in which Reagan has pledged to balance the budget. Red ink on anything like that scale could both delay recovery from recession, because Government borrowing to cover the deficits would keep interest rates high, and contribute...
Meanwhile, Economist Henry Kaufman of the New York investment banking firm of Salomon Brothers, whose pessimistic yearlong predictions of ever higher rates have proved unnervingly accurate, delivered yet another gloomy forecast. He warned a group of corporate financial officers in New York that Government borrowing will propel the cost of money to new and higher peaks in the next six months or so. Said he: "A noose is now tightening around the credit markets...