Word: forecasting
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Perhaps the most encouraging forecast by the board members is for a slowdown in inflation. They predict that it will end the year at around an 8.6% annual rate, vs. 13.2% for the last quarter of 1980. The small surplus in world petroleum markets is now keeping a tight grip on oil prices, and that will remove one of the key causes of recent inflation (see box). Homeownership costs, which account for about one-fourth of the consumer price index, are up from a year ago, but the increases are tapering off because sales are slow. Good crops and heavy...
...TIME board, was a guest at last week's session. He described the first quarter as part of the "Reagan honeymoon." Acknowledging the special factors involved in the business surge, Weidenbaum said that he did not expect such vigor to last. The Reagan Administration's revised economic forecast, which will be issued in July, is likely to show an economy only slightly stronger than its February prediction. Said he: "I expect that real growth this year will be a bit higher than 1.1%, and inflation will be a bit lower than the 11.1% we predicted. I also still...
...Henry Kaufman, 53, chief economist for the investment banking house of Salomon Bros., and Albert M. Wojnilower (pronounced Wodge-nee-lauer), 51, who holds the same post at the rival First Boston. They are two of the most respected oracles in the financial community; their ability to analyze and forecast money market trends with unusual accuracy has attracted legions of loyal followers...
...hoping, of course, that the volcano will cooperate by keeping quiet. But will it? Geologists are reluctant to forecast the future. Reconstructing last year's disaster with readings from seismographs and tiltmeters - which measure the swelling of the earth's surface - scientists have determined that the eruption was triggered by a magnitude5 earthquake that shook the mountain on May 18, the day of the volcano. The tremor dislodged a flank of the mountain already swollen from rising semimolten rock. A huge hunk of the mountain rumbled downhill like a great sliding door, uncovering rock saturated with compressed gases...
This temporizing forecast accurately reflects the uncertain political climate in Kampala. Though Obote was widely believed to be the only Ugandan politician able to unite the country's warring factions, it is now generally agreed that he is today little more than a figurehead. Whatever real power exists in Uganda's government, diplomats believe, is wielded by Vice President and Defense Minister Paulo Muwanga. Last May Muwanga orchestrated the fall of Uganda's second post-Amin head of state-Godfrey Binaisa-and installed himself as chairman of the six-man military commission that ruled the country until...