Word: forecasting
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Nevertheless, for all their hankering after order and continuity, the Russians have surprised the world, and themselves, before. They could do so again. It was in the context of an admission of his inability to "forecast to you the actions" of the U.S.S.R. that Winston Churchill made his famous statement in 1939: "Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." Less well remembered but equally trenchant was what he said next: "But perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest." Four decades later, the U.S.S.R. is still enigmatic, even?perhaps especially?to itself...
...intelligentsia, and so on-could become politically disenchanted with any government that severely restricts their perks. Stiff labor discipline, cutbacks on wage increases and higher prices for consumer staples could lead to popular unrest-as they have in Poland and other East bloc satellites. In sum, the most probable forecast for the Soviet Union's next generation of leaders is stormy weather ahead...
...making economic policy. He must be tutored. "Most Presidents at first would really like economics to go away," says Pechman. No such luck. But no sooner is a President put in the economics classroom than he is warned not to get too involved in details lest he miss the forecast for the trees. Carter has been told he may be learning too many economic details...
...Unemployment in May jumped to 7.8% of the work force, from 7% in April and 6.2% in March, the steepest two-month rise in at least 32 years. The rate already is well above the 7.2% figure that the Carter Administration had forecast for the end of the year. Each week 675,000 laid-off workers are filing claims for unemployment compensation...
...slow and arduous. Any quick moves to provide eco-nomic shock treatment would probably only result in another round of inflation. The two sickest sectors of business, housing and autos, do not appear to be near immediate recovery. Guest Panelist Marina Whitman, chief economist for General Motors, forecast a modest pickup in car sales during the summer and then stronger sales after the introduction of new models in the fall. Much of the increase is likely to come from customers seeking small, fuel-efficient cars. Washington Economic Consultant Robert Nathan pointed out, though, that since Detroit's production capacity...