Word: forecasting
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...that 1,400 banks would fail during the current economic crisis. Investment bank RBC Capital puts the figure at 1,000. Since there is no way to know how large the deposits at any of these institutions are, the amount of exposure the FDIC faces is impossible to forecast. But, it will be more than the $22 billion prediction. If 500 banks fail, which are fewer than those that failed in the S&L crisis, the figure is probably ten times that...
...lead to reduced lending in coming months. "Given the sharpness and severity of the recent slowdown, the recovery path is likely to be volatile as well," wrote Goldman Sachs economists Helen Qiao and Yu Song in a recent report. They're holding to their below-consensus 6% GDP-growth forecast...
...maxed-out Heathrow Airport struggles to win approval to build a third runway, Paris' Charles de Gaulle--which has increased capacity 20% since 2006--already operates four, and CDG has even more space set aside for considerable expansion. That will be vital to keep pace with what some forecast to be a 75% to 100% increase in Paris-bound tourism in the next 20 years...
...spending in Iraq. The two challenges to the success of those tactics depend on how many U.S. citizens who are rich become poor due to the recession and how much military effort will have to be switched to Afghanistan. It would be premature to make a forecast about either...
...fixing the economy. The details of the budget don’t take into account the possibilities of other potential measures Obama might have to take to save the economy. The current downturn was sparked by a bubble in house prices and the subprime mortgage crisis. Some economists forecast another wave of bad news over the next three years, as option ARMs and Alt-A mortgages start resetting. Other economists called for a larger stimulus package, and another might be needed in a couple of years. By highlighting the goal of halving the deficit, Obama limits his ability to react...