Word: forecasting
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...relatively stable economy, quarterly earnings releases and public company forecasts can be useful guides to Wall St. Corporations can actually look out a three to six months and forecast how their business should do with some degree of accuracy. But, as securities analysts have shown time and time again, missing projections is commonplace even when the business world is at peace...
...also reported extremely good earnings and said 2009 would be at least as good. Only one of its five major businesses would need to get into trouble for that forecast to come unglued. If sales in its hardware operation fall apart, its earnings forecasts could be off by a significant amount. All of those investors that looked at IBM as a good gamble would end up losing money...
...whose fate is largely aligned with finance firms. Following mass layoffs, the local apartment brokerage CitiHabitats has already seen a fall-off, with the average rent for a one-bedroom apartment dropping 2.5% in the last three months of 2008, compared with a year before. PPR's one-year forecast show rents dropping in 39 of its 54 markets, sometimes by large amounts - down 2.7% in Memphis, Tenn.; 3.7% in Charlotte, N.C.; 5.2% in Atlanta and 5.9% in Los Angeles. But other cities, like Seattle, Baltimore and St. Louis, Mo., are due for higher rents. (See a list...
...Because most of the world is in a recession, the drying up of exports is to be expected. The tumble may be happening more rapidly than had been forecast, but the global slowdown is spreading with astonishing speed...
Buchanan's forecast for China's GDP growth in 2009 is among the most bearish: 6%. If he's right, that would be the lowest rate since 1990. But the data released Thursday did show some unexpected signs of life. Industrial production revived slightly in December, and loan growth surged. Merrill Lynch said in a report that the fourth quarter of 2008 and this current quarter could be "the trough of this growth cycle," as government stimulus and loose monetary policy begin to boost domestic demand. The data gave enough hope to Credit Suisse's Tao to convince...